PREDICTION: Frank Ocean, Mumford & Sons Could Be Among Top GRAMMYs Nominees

Thinking bout some GRAMMY wins.

(Check this post for the actual nominations.)

It’s almost time once again for the GRAMMY Awards, “Music’s Biggest Night”, celebrating the best in music from the past year of many musical genres. The ceremony will take place on February 10, 2013, but on Wednesday night, December 5, CBS will be broadcasting the GRAMMY Nominations Concert Live!!, a one-hour event beginning at 10 PM Eastern and featuring performances by Dierks Bentley, Fun., Hunter Hayes, Luke Bryan, Maroon 5, Ne-Yo, The Band Perry, and The Who. Now, obviously, not every award will be announced during the telecast, but many where these performers are actually nominated in will be presented in full, and the complete list is usually updated online shortly afterwards. This means that’s it’s time to make some predictions. Continuing a trend over the past few years, I’m thinking that the nominations will trend more commercial as a whole, though there could be surprises as usual. Here’s what I’m anticipating for the Big Four Awards: Album Of The Year, Record Of The Year, Song Of The Year and Best New Artist.

(The actual eligibility period for the releases in contention for nominations is October 1, 2011 to September 30, 2012, so keep that in mind as you read these predictions.)

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Bob Dylan – Tempest
Coldplay – Mylo Xyloto
Frank Ocean – Channel ORANGE
Mumford & Sons – Babel
The Black Keys – El Camino

Close Calls:
Bonnie Raitt – Slipstream
Dave Matthews Band – Away From The World
Drake – Take Care
Fun. – Some Nights
Lionel Richie – Tuskegee

They’ve been nominated for six awards and lost all of them, so I’m thinking this will be the year for Mumford & Sons to finally clinch a big one with Album Of The Year for Babel. With the second-best opening of 2012 on the Album Chart (600,000 copies sold), it’s a commercial and critical success, the perfect storm for them to receive the win. Frank Ocean is my backup choice to win the Award. Ocean, who made waves in July when he came out in a blog note, has done alright commercially, but has been a huge critical effort, with glowing reviews from a number of writers. A win would push the album past Gold status and possibly to Platinum, while at the same time, make a huge statement for the R&B and hip-hop community. Past GRAMMY nominees for Album Of The Year Bob Dylan and Coldplay will most likely secure nominations once again, and The Black Keys, who won Best Alternative Album for Brothers in 2011, will most likely get their first nod for Album Of The Year with El Camino, which gained them an even bigger audience.

RECORD OF THE YEAR
Adele – Set Fire To The Rain
Drake featuring Rihanna – Take Care
fun. featuring Janelle Monae – We Are Young
Gotye featuring Kimbra – Somebody That I Used To Know
Mumford & Sons – I Will Wait

Close Calls:
Bruce Springsteen – We Take Care Of Our Own
Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
Frank Ocean – Thinking Bout You
Katy Perry – Wide Awake
The Black Keys – Lonely Boy

Gotye and Kimbra are pretty much a lock for winning with their international smash. Mumford & Sons would be a backup as “I Will Wait” is another solid single for the band and would only ensure them winning Album Of The Year. The other three nominees were all commercial successes but even Adele, who swept at last year’s ceremony, won’t see a win this year in the category, though she’ll probably easily get a win for her Live At The Royal Albert Hall DVD in the Long Form Video category.

SONG OF THE YEAR
Bruce Springsteen – We Take Care Of Our Own
Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
Frank Ocean – Thinking Bout You
Katy Perry – Wide Awake
Mumford & Sons – I Will Wait

Close Calls:
Drake featuring Rihanna – Take Care
Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
Phillip Phillips – Home
The Black Keys – Lonely Boy
The Lumineers – Ho Hey

This one is a tough choice because “Set Fire To The Rain” and “Somebody That I Used To Know” weren’t submitted by their respective labels to be considered for this Award. That being said, I think Frank Ocean will be walking away with this one. It’s been a slow burner at Urban radio and a win would probably guarantee at least a minor CHR radio crossover. The Boss, Bruce Springsteen, would be my second choice, which was included in the soundtrack to President Obama’s successful reelection campaign and saw notable gains because of it. Though Wrecking Ball won’t likely be nominated anywhere near the top tier of awards, the single is strong enough to hold its ground in this category. Mumford & Sons is another obvious nominee and would probably have an easier time winning Song Of The Year, but they’ll be denied. The two poppier releases by Carly Rae Jepsen and Katy Perry could pull off a surprise, but I have serious doubts about it. They would be lucky enough to be nominated.

BEST NEW ARTIST
Frank Ocean
Fun.
Gotye
Hunter Hayes
One Direction

Close Calls:
Alabama Shakes
Carly Rae Jepsen
Christina Perri
Ed Sheeran
Ellie Goulding

Best New Artist is for sure going to be a competitive category this year. Frank Ocean is a given, so is Gotye, but I’m predicting the Award goes to Fun. as they have two big hits under the belt and I’m pretty sure this category is going to skew way more commercial this year after two consecutive years of wins by artists far outside the mainstream, Esperanza Spalding in 2010 and Bon Iver in 2011. Hunter Hayes will be the token Country nominee, and yes, One Direction will get a nominee for Best New Artist. Even Justin Bieber got nominated for the category in 2010. The boy band has a better chance of collecting it than Bieber did, but they won’t.

Come back on December 5 to see how I did! If you have any alternative predictions for these four categories, let me know in the comments!